A Paradigm Change in the Economy

There are events that change the way the world operates, and completely destroys the old ways.  The internet definitely did that, with the move to e-commerce changing the way things are purchased, and making Jeff Bezos a VERY rich man in the process.  However, Amazon was the normal extension of the process of evolution in the Economy.  Nothing is new.

Prior to Amazon, there was Wal-Mart and K-Mart.  Large stores where you bought pretty much everything in one place for a low price.  Instead of going to two or three stores to buy shoes, clothing and appliances, you could now go to one place for it all.  The big stores drove those mom and pop places out of business, as people went for convenience and price over service and quality.

The outbreak of COVID-19 has now given a chance to again shift the paradigm when it comes to businesses world-wide.  With the loss of retail space due to large stores and brands losing marketshare, there is also now the prospect of a change in commercial space as well.

COVID-19 has proven that while there is a need for a physical address for businesses, maybe renting the entire floor isn't something that needs to be done.  Conservatively, would you rather pay $35 a square foot for 3,000 sq. ft. of office space (roughly $105,000 a month) plus utilities, internet and phones and computer equipment or pay a lot less than that for your staff to work from home?  Smart employers will start offering to pay for cell phones and internet for their employees, issuing them laptops, and letting them set their own times as long as the work is done.  Who says you have to work from 9-5 anymore?  If the work is getting done, and an owner can do virtual meetings, why not have people work more from home?  In fact, the only reason you'd need an office space now would just to have a place for meetings where you have to do face to faces.

As a manager, all I care about is the work being done.  If the work is being done properly and on time, I am not at all fussed about where they are.  This would have a knock-on effect on other industries, I know, but I definitely see this as something that is coming down the line.  Or, if not a full work from home, at least not every day at the office.  This would, in my opinion, make life at least a little easier for the worker, and might actually increase productivity.

So if my prediction is correct, and there's a good chance it is since it's already been proven to work, what will this do to the real estate market?  Lots of businesses depend on those workers for their livelihoods, such as restaurants and retail.  But this will also open up more free time for the workers, as they aren't now tied down to the desk in the office.  I've heard friends in the private sector, and where I work, say they stay late at the office to impress the boss with their dedication.  If they don't have to do that any more, and it is all now based off productivity, maybe processes become more streamlined.

Also, what if you no longer need a person in a certain location, because that work can be done from somewhere else?  Costs for utilities and internet can be done cheaply in some parts as opposed to others, and the cost of living is cheaper as well.  If someone is good, and wants to live in the middle of the country rather than work in New York, Washington, DC or even Atlanta, why can't they do that?  Or if you have a regional office to run overseas, why would you pay all that money to send someone there to manage, when it can be done through a regional hub with fast internet, cheap cost of living and good connecting flights?

Things are not going to go back to the way they were.  This pandemic is a paradigm shift, and just like with the introduction of the internet, it's going to change the way we work in the world.

Watches and staying normal

During this COVID-19 social isolation, we are all keeping busy to try and halt the spread of this virus. It’s important for everyone that we pay attention to health officials and stay inside and practice social distancing. This has been very difficult for everyone as the kids are out of school doing work via video, and Lovely English Lass working from home as well. I on occasion have to go into the office but I also need to make sure I limit my exposure.

With Lovely Little Girl, these changes are very difficult. Being on the spectrum, she likes her order and routine. She’s being a champ right now but there are some bad times where she is obviously overwhelmed. I completely understand that. Although I’m not on the spectrum, I’m trying to keep a somewhat routine myself. I workout when I can during lunch when I’m at work, I still get up at 430 every morning for time alone to drink coffee and read the news while making LEL some tea. But I also make sure I keep wearing a watch.

Now if you know me, you’ll know I collect watches. Usually small batch watches, but a few Citizen watches and a Tissot. So I move through all my watches during the week and on the weekend I wear a Helgray diver watch on a NATO strap. Even though the weekend isn’t that important with social isolation, I am a creature of habit. It helps me keep track of time and keeps me centered.

I can appreciate the so called smart watches, really.  I mean they look cool and are the closest thing to Dick Tracy that I've ever seen.  You can make calls on some of them, they can track exercise, pulse and even help you relax.  I do have a Fitbit to help with my health and make sure I am walking and getting around enough during the day.  However, I am and will always be a man that loves a good old fashioned wristwatch.

You see, watches are small works of art in my opinion.  They are crafted, not made.  Even the ones that are mass produced still have enough small things going inside them to make you sit back in awe of you thought of it all working together.  A good watch, and I'm talking Cartier or Patek Philippe, is so intricately put together with precision that it beggars belief that someone could have the skill and finesse to pull it off.  The beauty of the watch on the outside is matched only be the work done on the inside.  A simple mechanical watch contains about 130 parts.  A more complicated one can run into the several hundreds.  If one of those parts isn't working properly, or is installed insufficiently, then it doesn't work at all.  Only when they are working together, doing what they need to do, can the watch perform the way it should.

Yes, this is a metaphor (a rather tortured one I know) for society right now.  With this COVID-19 virus, we need to work together.  Only when we all try to stop the spread of this thing can we get society back and working again.  If we don't work together, the whole thing falls apart.  So please stay inside, wash your hands and try to reduce your exposure.

Now, if you'll excuse me I have some watch photos to look at during a break in working at home.  My Holy Grail watch, The Tag Heuer Monaco Gulf, needs to be looked at again for the 1,000 time since this whole thing started.